VST

Vistra posted a record first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion, up roughly 20% year-over-year and nearly 85% above Q1 2024, a result that reflects both the maturation of the company's integrated generation-and-retail model and the structural improvement in power market fundamentals that management has been telegraphing for two years. The quarter was operationally demanding: ERCOT experienced its second-warmest first quarter since 1950 before Winter Storm Fern delivered sub-zero temperatures across a wide swath of the country. The natural gas fleet ran at 97% commercial availability during Fern and the nuclear fleet at 100%, validating the reliability thesis that underpins Vistra's premium valuation. Mild weather weighed on the retail segment, which delivered $68 million of adjusted EBITDA against a tough prior-year comparison, but generation's $1.426 billion contribution, boosted by higher PJM capacity revenues and the late-2025 Lotus asset acquisition, more than compensated. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance ranges as well as the 2027 midpoint opportunity range, with both metrics still excluding any contribution from the pending 5,500-megawatt Cogentrix acquisition or the long-term Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites.